See PJM's Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee Reliability Analysis Update for July 12, 2012.

PJM's PATH Project Analysis Update begins on page 9.  Page 12 says PATH is not needed for reliability reasons.

Under 15 year thermal test:
"No 500 kV potential thermal overloads identified."

Under MAAC Load Deliverability Voltage:
"CETL > CETO"

CETL stands for Capacity Emergency Transfer Limits and is the actual emergency import capability of the test area.

CETO stands for Capacity Emergency Transfer Objective and is the import capability required by an area to comply with a Transmission Risk of one event in 25 Years.

An area passes the deliverability test if its CETL is equal to or greater than its CETO.

So, how about it PJM, can we toss PATH onto the great scrap heap of failed transmission projects that have cost consumers millions without providing any benefit now?

Oh no, not yet!  PJM still has one more test to run, the N-1-1  power flow modeling test, which they say will be completed before the next TEAC meeting on August 9.

N-1-1 means they look at every combination of two separate – one after the other - transmission line outages throughout PJM to make sure PATH really isn't needed after all.  Not only are PJM's N-1-1 scenarios highly unlikely to ever occur, but they defy common sense.  If a grid-killing disaster happens (derecho, anyone?) that takes out two separate transmission lines, who's to say that said disaster won't also take out the PATH Project, or any other transmission line they propose as a backup?  As we've all found out over the past couple of weeks, a "robust" transmission system is only as good as the distribution system that brings the power to your home or business.  And as a group of Consumer Organizations pointed out to FERC last month, transmission incentives are pulling investment away from the distribution system.

The good news from today's TEAC meeting is that if the analysis continues to show that the PATH and MAPP lines are not needed, the TEAC will recommend to the PJM Board that the projects be dropped from the RTEP (and no longer held in abeyance).

Thank you, PJM Magic 8 ball!

The Atlantic off-shore wind transmission backbone moved one step closer to reality yesterday when The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued a finding of "no competitive interest," granting the project needed right-of-way.

Unfortunately for AWC, they still need PJM's approval.  Good luck there, fellas!  :-)

So why doesn't Obama add this to his er-tit, instead of trying to ram through an unneeded transmission line designed to ship coal-fired electricity to the east coast?  Susquehanna-Roseland is going to be obsolete in about 10 years, although we'll still be paying for it for another 60 years after that.

Bob Mitchell is a bit disturbing with his idiotic plans to use the project to transport "low cost" power from Virginia to New Jersey.  Has he been drinking Dominion's Kool-Aid?

Meanwhile, a New Jersey blogger gets up on his predictable soap box to complain about the project's $5B cost and the fact that they were awarded CWIP in rate base by FERC.  Guess what, Tom?  The development of land based wind to serve New Jersey's RPS is predicted to cost ratepayers over $2 TRILLION, according to transmission line building AEP CEO Nick Akins.

"The electric utility industry needs to spend about $2 trillion over the next two decades just to refurbish the existing grid," new American Electric Power CEO Nick Akins said last month at his company's annual shareholders meeting in Tulsa." (Don't pay any attention to the rest of that article, it's chock full of propaganda I just don't feel like dealing with right now.)

Off-shore wind makes both financial and engineering sense for east coast load centers.

The Maryland Public Service Commission ordered the construction of a new 661 MW natural-gas fired generation plant in Waldorf yesterday.  The PSC also requires Pepco, BG&E and Delmarva Power to buy power from the plant.  Construction of the plant is expected to save Maryland electric consumers 49 cents per month in current congestion and capacity payments.  Construction of the PATH project was expected to cost Maryland electric consumers somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 cents per month.

This is a huge victory over the PJM cartel, who has attempted to limit the building of new generation on the east coast in order to preserve the transmission and capacity revenues of their favored incumbent generators of dirty, coal-fired electricity in the Ohio Valley, the "PJM Power Providers Group."

A similar power struggle over new generation is occurring in New Jersey.  The two states are currently faced with some of the highest electricity costs in PJM.  PJM, on behalf of the "power providers," has been fighting the states at FERC, insisting that their markets are working to stimulate new generation.  PJM's farce is no longer working.

So, with both New Jersey and Maryland building new, cheaper, generation, there's absolutely no "need" for PATH or other Project Mountaineer transmission lines (not that there ever was).  Just one more nail in the moldering corpse of  PATH's coffin.

I was going to just update my previous post, but you simply shouldn't miss reading CAKES's 2012 National Electric Transmission Congestion Study Comments.

'Nuff said.  Go.  Read.

The National Park Service is reviewing and accepting public comment on Dominion's proposed MSD rebuild on Harpers Ferry National Park and Appalachian Trail property.  You can access the NPS's project website here.

This is not the same full-blown EIS process that was triggered by the PATH Project.  Looks like there won't even be any public scoping meetings for the Dominion guys to creep on, like the PATH guys did back in 2010.  Too bad, I would like to ask my Dominion buddies why I've been getting complaints in light of their promise to treat landowners fairly.  I'm sure they didn't tell the NPS that they were going to build a temporary bridge that was going to flood their property and that there was nothing they could do about it.  It also looks like they DID notify the NPS before just trespassing on their property and working on their project without any prior contact.  Hopefully they've learned their lesson.

If you've been wondering about the MSD project and how it will affect the parks, here's the place to get information.

Feel free to submit your comments related to how the project may affect park property.  (Click on "Open for Comment" and follow directions.)

We've been reporting that New Jersey has grown tired of paying the high prices for electricity caused by PJM's failed reliability pricing model, which was supposed to attract new in-state generation.  Now Maryland has joined the parade, and on Thursday the Maryland PSC issued an order requesting proposals for new natural gas-fired generating capacity in Maryland's BG&E and Pepco zones by October 7.

The problem, according to the Maryland PSC:

"The Commission finds that Maryland continues to face the threat of insufficient new capacity, as PJM's capacity market construct, the Reliability Pricing Model ("RPM"), has been unsuccessful in attracting appreciable new generation to the State since its inception in 2007,  despite the fact that RPM has imposed prices in the Southwest MAAC zone that are approximately double that of the rest of the PJM region. The resultant risk to Maryland's long-term reliability is further heightened by several factors including (i) Maryland's status as a net importer of electricity, importing about 30 percent of its electric needs each year; (ii) the cancellation or postponement of certain large scale transmission projects coupled with the unpredictable transmission planning process that has become characteristic of PJM's Regional Transmission Expansion Plan; (iii) the potential that load forecasts could rise unexpectedly; (iv) the increased reliance the State has had to place on demand response to compensate for anemic electric capacity growth; (v) the risk that Environmental Protection Agency regulations and future State and federal emissions legislation could cause substantial retirements of base-load generation, especially coal plants, in the State and throughout the PJM region; (vi) the fact that Maryland relies heavily on coal plants for its electric generation needs; and (vii) the significant number of renewable resources anticipated to come on-line within PJM as a result of Maryland and other state Renewable Portfolio Standards, which, because of the variable nature of their output, will increase the need for regulation services from exiting and new conventional generation."

Maryland tries to be a bit "nicer" than New Jersey about it, but the message is clear.  Maryland is no longer content to be a victim of PJM's skewed markets which favor transmission solutions that provide huge profits to incumbent, coal-dependent, Ohio Valley mega-utilities such as AEP and FirstEnergy.

"Although the Commission recognizes and appreciates PJM’s role in planning regional transmission solutions, Maryland law directs this Commission to ensure an adequate and reliable supply of electricity to Maryland citizens. Where that supply may fall short, Public Utilities Article § 7-510(c)(6) authorizes this Commission to require investor- owned electric companies in Maryland to “construct, acquire or lease, and operate generating facilities in order to meet long-term anticipated demand in the State for standard offer service and other electricity supply.”

"Because market forces have not produced new generation in our region, the Commission may need to invoke its authority under §7-510(c)(6) if the record in this case demonstrates long-term risks of a projected capacity shortfall in an upcoming Delivery Year and that ordering the construction, acquisition, lease or operation of additional capacity resources would satisfy the long-term anticipated demand in Maryland for Standard Offer Service or other electricity supply."

PJM and the coal gluttons need to realize that the transmission party is over.  The two biggest victims of the scam are taking matters into their own hands and providing the solutions that PJM couldn't and wouldn't.

Bravo, Maryland and New Jersey!

I was very disappointed to hear today that the "promise" Dominion made to StopPATH to treat landowners fairly and with respect while rebuilding the Mt. Storm - Doubs 500kV line has already been tossed aside.  That didn't take long, did it?

When we asked Dominion to treat landowners fairly, and they promised to do so, we didn't just mean in Jefferson County.  We included ALL landowners affected by Dominion's project, no matter where in West Virginia, Virginia or Maryland they live.  I thought that was understood, Wade, Stephanie and Chuck.

Now Dominion needs to make things right with the affected landowners and get with the program.  Did they think our group didn't reach that far?  Surprise!!!!!  We have people all along Dominion's rebuild route in our group.

Here's a tip for Dominion.  Hopefully they'll ignore their baser instincts and take it to heart.  PATH never did and look what happened to them....

DO NOT LIE TO LANDOWNERS.  YOU ARE NOT SMARTER THAN WE ARE AND WE DON'T BELIEVE YOUR CHICANERY.  THE ONLY WAY DOMINION IS GOING TO GET THROUGH THIS PROJECT WITH THEIR HIDE INTACT IS TO BE HONEST, FAIR AND RESPECTFUL WITH LANDOWNERS.  WE CAN DEAL WITH THE TRUTH AND WILL WORK WITH YOU TO FIND A SOLUTION ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH PARTIES.  LIES AND STRONG-ARM TACTICS ONLY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.

The WV PSC issued an order today denying Staff's petition to require FirstEnergy and American Electric Power to provide an assessment of the condition of their high voltage transmission facilities in the state within 30 days.

The Staff's petition was filed in accordance with a WV legislative Resolution that urged that the West Virginia Public Service Commission act to review the condition of the Pruntytown to Mt. Storm 500kV transmission line owned by Monongahela Power, a subsidiary of FirstEnergy, and order the rebuilding and reconductoring of that transmission line as soon as is practical.  It was also expanded to include all AEP and FirstEnergy facilities in the state in order to seize the opportunity that currently exists to take some lines out of service for rebuilding and modernizing.  This opportunity currently exists due to decreased demand and the recent energizing of the TrAIL line, providing enough slack in the system to get the necessary work accomplished.  This opportunity isn't going to last forever.

Rebuilding of existing lines that are over 40 years old will not only provide a safer environment for the West Virginians who live in the vicinity of this decrepit infrastructure, it will also increase the capacity and improve the efficiency of these transmission lines and save energy that is currently wasted due to line loss on these antique facilities.  Improving transmission lines in West Virginia will also serve as a proactive step toward preventing future proposal of new transmission lines, such as PATH, in the state.

Both of the power companies agreed to evaluate their facilities and provide reports to the PSC, however they wanted more time -- 120 days instead of 30. 

The WV PSC denied the petition and in its place reaffirmed their 2008 decision in the TrAIL case directing TrAILCo and its corporate affiliates to submit a plan for reconductoring or otherwise upgrading their respective transmission facilities within one year of the in-service date of TrAIL.  TrAIL was energized on May 19, 2011, which would make FirstEnergy's report due on May 19, 2012.  Note that the TrAILCo order only applied to TrAILCo corporate affiliates (the FirstEnergy companies) and lets AEP completely off the hook for any responsibility to evaluate the condition of their own aging transmission facilities.

The WV PSC is utterly abandoning their statutory responsibility to ensure that utilities under their jurisdiction provide safe and reliable service to the citizens of West Virginia.  If our current Commissioners don't want to do their jobs, it is incumbent upon our Governor to appoint ones who will serve the citizens of this state.

The term of Commissioner Jon McKinney expired on June 30, 2011.  Obviously, he doesn't want to do the job anymore, so the only responsible thing to do is for Governor Tomblin to promptly name his replacement and relieve him of his duties.  West Virginia utility attorney Robert Rodecker was suggested to Governor Tomblin by The Coalition for Reliable Power and endorsed by members of the legislature back in June, before the expiration of McKinney's term.  Roedecker's nomination was also enthusiastically endorsed by numerous citizens who contacted the Governor's office expressing their support.  Despite this, Tomblin has failed to act, and the PSC is now shirking their statutory responsibilities.

It's time for YOU to act!  Please call or email (or, for good measure, do BOTH) Governor Tomblin and let him know that you support the appointment of Robert Rodecker to fill the expired term of Commissioner McKinney effective immediately.  The Governor's office may be reached at 1-888-438-2731 or by submitting an email at this link.  DO IT NOW!

The WV PSC and Governor Tomblin are clearly ignoring the will of the citizens that has been expressed through their elected representatives and changes need to be made.  Change begins with YOU!

The Coalition for Reliable Power and Energy Efficient West Virginia hosted a public forum, Real Solutions to Rising Electric Rates, in Martinsburg last night. 

The forum was well attended and the audience got all fired up when they heard that FirstEnergy/Potomac Edison, as required by stipulations in their merger settlement, is proposing an ineffective Energy Efficiency Program in West Virginia that is much weaker than programs FirstEnergy is required to comply with in neighboring states.  The program will be paid for by residential consumers, including its marketing and administrative costs and reimbursement for resulting lower sales revenue to the company.  Benefits offered to consumers via the program are extremely limited.  Their program offers assistance to commercial/industrial customers with upgrading lighting (although this class of customers will not contribute to the cost of the program in their rates).  It also offers free CFL bulbs and faucet aerators for low-income residential customers.  That's it -- there's nothing in it for the rest of the residential customers who will finance this program through new rate increases.  In fact, the audience was so outraged and motivated, several checked back in with me on the way out to make sure we had their e-mail address for future calls to action.  Even if you missed the meeting, we're still asking you to take action detailed below.

Now that I've given you the punch line first, here's the background that we covered last night.  We explained how a regulated utility systems works and the mission and procedures of the PSC in a rate case.  Next we explained how the FirstEnergy subsidiaries operate in the state -- how electricity gets to your house and where it comes from.  Cathy Kunkel of EEWV gave a very informative talk explaining the ratemaking process, the different types of rate cases, why rates have increased over 30% in the past couple of years (the cost of coal!), and informed us that Potomac Edison & Mon Power will be filing for another rate increase next month.  Mike Harman of EEWV talked with the audience about energy efficiency measures and how they can dramatically reduce electric bills.  If FirstEnergy had a more effective program that helped more consumers with energy efficiency measures, even those who did not participate would benefit through lower bills.  As long as our consumption of electricity continues to rise, we are subject to higher costs to purchase peak power and the cost to build additional generation plants and transmission lines.  If we can reduce our use overall, we can avoid higher prices because the cheapest power plant and transmission lines are the ones that FirstEnergy doesn't have to build.  Mike also introduced the concept of demand response, where consumers of large amounts of power agree to lower their usage at times of peak demand in exchange for payments from the power company.  He shared many success stories of West Virginia businesses and school systems who have scored big financial benefits from energy efficiency and demand response programs.  He compared FirstEnergy's program goals in West Virginia with those FirstEnergy is required to comply with in neighboring states, which shocked the audience about what FirstEnergy is trying to get away in this state.

Cathy wrapped things up with a call to action for all Potomac Edison and Mon Power customers:

• Read more about this issue here.
• Send a letter to the Public Service Commission asking them to order FirstEnergy to bring their proposed program in line with standards and benefits offered in other states.

Get involved with EEWV and the Coalition for Reliable Power -- visit their websites and sign up!

Additional meetings are being planned around the state this fall.  The next meeting will be in Lewisburg, at City Hall, on August 31 at 7:00 p.m.  Check out the complete meeting schedule here.  If you'd like to attend another meeting offered in the Eastern Panhandle, let EEWV and the Coalition know!

Here's a link to The Journal's article about the forum.  The meeting was also covered by WEPM radio.

We've touched on this over at the Coalition for Reliable Power, but here's another, more recent article that spells out precisely why the need for PATH in its current form has completely evaporated.

Due to dropping demand and increasing demand response, the economic congestion that PATH pointed to as one of the needs for their transmission line has completely evaporated.  Prices in "eastern PJM" (the east coast load pockets) have levelized with prices in "western PJM" (home of all those coal-fired generating plants in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio).

This means that, in 2014/15, the price of electricity won't be appreciably higher in the eastern parts of the region than in the western parts of the region.  When prices are levelized like this, there is no need to transport "cheap" electricity from western PJM to eastern PJM.  That transfer was "needed" in order to alleviate the transmission congestion "bottle neck," and that was the problem PATH was supposed to solve.  Now that congestion bottle neck no longer exists.  If there's no need to transport power across the region, there's simply no need for PATH.

Remember that crazy congestion costs motion filed by the MD-PSC staff attorney in February that caused the Maryland Chamber of Commerce to file a late petition to intervene right before PATH went belly up and floated downstream?  That specious argument is now completely nullified.

This information isn't new.  The auction mentioned in the article happened three months ago.  There is a new angle presented in the article, however, whereby the new EPA rules and the TrAIL transmission project coming online are also credited for the evaporation of "congestion."  The TrAIL line helped, but the argument was made during the its approval process that demand response and energy efficiency would be able to solve the "congestion" problem without building a new transmission line.  It looks like The Sierra Club and other TrAIL opponents have been proven correct, although saying "I told you so" is a hollow victory in the face of the environmental destruction Allegheny Energy wrought while constructing the line, the burden to landowners that resulted, and the billions of dollars the unneeded TrAIL line is going to cost all PJM ratepayers over the next 70 years, plus.

The EPA rules have had the effect of adding some of the true cost of coal onto electricity prices in western PJM.  Seven gigawatts of coal-fired generation was priced out of the market at the auction.  The article points out that this is a good thing for all of us who like to breathe clean air.  It's a win-win, according to EnergyPulse!

So why is PATH continuing to waste our money appealing the decision of the Frederick County, Maryland, Board of Zoning Appeals against a special exception to construct the Mt. Airy substation?  PATH is trying to preserve the three long-term processes they will need to make a comeback, one of which is the court fight over siting of the substation.

PATH is not coming back in the form we knew it on February 28, 2011.  Whether they will try to "greenwash" it as a project with different goals depends on how stupid they think the state regulatory commissions and the opposition are, and remains to be seen.  We're all still here and we're still on to you, PATH.  It's time to abandon your silly, little project and put your efforts toward doing something constructive for society.  Quit wasting both your own, and our, time and money.  PATH is history.